Mo

26

Mai

2014

#NoEstimates project planning using Monte Carlo simulation - Dimitar Bakardzhiev (#007)

Clients come to us with an idea for a product and they always ask the questions - how long will it take and how much will it cost us to deliver? They need a delivery date and a budget estimate.
I will show how to use Monte Carlo simulation for predicting the delivery time for your next project.
I will go pretty quickly through the slides and focus on how to simulate project delivery time using Monte Carlo simulation in MS Excel.
The method presented can be used by any team that uses user stories for planning and tracking project execution no matter the development process used (Scrum, XP, kanban systems).

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Kommentare: 2 (Diskussion geschlossen)
  • #1

    Dimitar Bakardzhiev (Montag, 26 Mai 2014 18:00)

    This is a lecture with one interactive demo to augment understanding of Monte Carlo simulations.
    No prerequisite knowledge of statistics is required. Basic awareness of Agile and Lean concepts will improve the experience.
    This session will give attendees practical techniques to apply Monte Carlo simulation on their own when planning projects.

    The presentation can be seen here :
    https://www.slideshare.net/dimiterbak/noestimates-project-planning-using-monte-carlo-simulation

    And here is an Excel file to show how Monte Carlo is done http://modernmanagement.bg/data/NoEstimate_Project_Planning_MonteCarlo.xlsx

    Here is a video I prepared in order to help people understand how to plan a release using the Monte Carlo simulation in MS Excel :
    http://youtu.be/r38a25ak4co

    Here is the next part on high-level project planning using Monte Carlo simulation.
    http://www.slideshare.net/dimiterbak/high-level-project-planning-using-monte-carlo-simulation

    Previous part was about preparing the SIP of Average Takt time distribution for the 2nd leg of the Z-curve and now I show how we can predict project delivery time by running Monte Carlo simulation on all three legs of the Z-curve.

    Here are the SIPs for the baseline project http://modernmanagement.bg/data/SIPs_MonteCarlo_FVR.xlsx
    Here is the planing simulation in Excel http://modernmanagement.bg/data/High_Level_Project_Planning.xlsx

    The video http://youtu.be/GE9vrJ741WY on how to use the Excel files

  • #2

    Dimitar Bakardzhiev (Freitag, 20 Juni 2014 07:31)

    Here is the recorded webinar http://youtu.be/4Ccv2Dphu_w I hosted together with Digite SwiftKanban on the topic of project planing using Monte Carlo simulation.

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